Wheat Condition: Little Impact from Freeze Reported Yet

USDA this week reports 63 percent of winter wheat in the leading 18 states is headed, compared with an average 57 percent. Kansas wheat, in particular is well ahead –at 84 percent versus an average 68.

Those who expected a deterioration in winter wheat condition following the May freezes were disappointed. USDA shows 51 percent good/excellent and 17 percent poor/very poor as of May 14, compared with 53 percent on the top end and 17 percent on the bottom end. Kansas is rated 44 percent good/excellent, up one percentage point from a week earlier, and 27 percent poor/very poor, unchanged.

Planting Progress: Acreage is catching up but emergence still lags

Looking at the percentages alone, it seems corn and soybean planting is right on target. But look at the acreage implied by the progress and Prospective Plantings report and a slightly different picture emerges.

Nationally, USDA reports corn planting at 71 percent of the intended acres as of May 14, just one percentage point behind the five-year average. However, given the reduction in planned corn acreage, that means 63.9 million acres are in, compared with a five-year average of 65.1.

No. 1 state Iowa is well ahead of average progress at 85 percent complete. The states behind the most are Michigan and Pennsylvania – each 17 percentage points behind average. They accounted for 2.5 million and 1.41 million acres, respectively, last year and expected to grow 2.4 and 1.4 million this year, so their entire acreage is only percent of total expected acres.

As the table illustrates, corn emergence is slightly more behind average, at 31 percent versus 36 percent in the 18 states – and most states are behind.

The next hurdle, of course, is whether corn will see the growing degree days needed to catch up and silk before the usual hot, dry summer weather sets in.

Percent planted and emerged in the 18 states accounting for 92 percent of 2016 corn acres.

 

Planted

Emerged

  5/14/17 5-yr avg Difference(percentage points) 5/14/17 5-yr avg Difference(percentage points)
USA 71 70 1 31 36 -5
KS 85 75 10 28 35 -7
IA 85 75 10 28 35 -7
NE 78 76 2 31 34 -3
SD 77 66 11 15 21 -6
CO 53 61 -8 16 17 -1
IL 75 77 -2 47 50 -3
IN 56 62 -6 29 33 -4
KY 68 73 -5 45 50 -5
MI 30 47 -17 2 15 -13
MN 84 70 14 20 32 -12
MO 87 80 7 61 59 2
NC 93 93 0 86 81 5
ND 58 53 5 8 13 -5
OH 49 57 -8 24 25 -1
PA 35 52 -17 20 19 1
TN 89 88 1 74 69 5
TX 80 82 -2 72 70 2
WI 48 52 -4 3 12 -9

Data: USDA/NASS

Soybean planting is right on its average, at 32 percent – and that’s despite the fact that producers said they plan to plant 7 percent more bean acres this year. About 28.6 million are in and 62.7 million remain. If we were planting the five-year average acreage of 81 million acres, we’d be at 35 percent complete.

As with corn, most states are behind in emergence, though several are well ahead of average.

Percent planted and emerged in the 18 states accounting for 95 percent of 2016 soybean acres

Planted

Emerged

5/14/17 5-yr avg Difference (percentage points) 5/14/17 5-yr avg Difference (percentage points)
USA 32 32 0 8 9 -1
KS 16 20 -4 4 5 -1
IA 40 32 8 2 4 -2
NE 37 37 0 4 7 -3
SD 29 26 3 1 2 -1
AR 62 50 12 49 35 14
IL 23 31 -8 6 9 -3
IN 23 31 -8 4 11 -7
KY 18 20 -2 6 7 -1
LA 86 70 16 76 48 28
MI 11 25 -14 0 4 -4
MN 47 40 7 0 5 -5
MS 81 64 17 72 47 25
MO 24 22 2 4 7 -3
NC 19 19 0 7 6 1
ND 29 28 1 1 2 -1
OH 19 27 -8 5 6 -1
TN 19 25 -6 4 8 -4
WI 15 20 -5 0 1 -1

Data: USDA/NASS