Crop Update: From a late season to ahead of average

This year’s planting season has morphed from one that had traders worrying about whether the crops would get in to one that is ahead of average.

May 27, 2018 Corn planted % Average corn planted Difference 2018 -Avg. Soybeans planted % Average soybeans planted Difference 2018 -Avg.
Iowa

96

95

+1

81

71

+10

Kansas

93

88

+5

65

37

+28

Nebraska

96

95

+1

87

72

+15

South Dakota

91

92

-1

63

44

+19

18 States

92

90

+2

77

62

+15

 

Grain sorghum is reported at 49 percent complete, 5 points ahead of average, with Kansas at 20 percent (against 14 percent average) and Nebraska at 56 percent (50 percent average).

Spring wheat planting is not as much ahead. Planting in the six reported states is 91 percent complete compared an average of 89 percent. South Dakota is 2 points behind normal, at 96 percent.

Emergence also has surged ahead of average. Corn in the 18 states is 72 percent emerged, 3 points ahead of average. In the states we serve, emergence ranges from 1 percent ahead in Iowa to 15 percent ahead in Kansas. Soybean emergence is 47 percent, 15 points ahead of average and in our territory, ranges from 10 points behind in South Dakota to 24 percent ahead in Kansas.

USDA reports corn condition at this early stage is very positive:

Poor/very poor Good/excellent
Iowa

1

82

Kansas

8

57

Nebraska

1

83

South Dakota

0

74

18 States

3

79

 

The picture is not as rosy for the winter wheat crop, which has headed on 73 percent of the acres, compared with a 75 percent average in the 18 reported states, according to USDA.

Poor/very poor Good/excellent
Kansas

48

17

Nebraska

8

67

South Dakota

10

50

18 States

34

38

 

Pasture and range conditions are rated 17 percent poor/very poor, compared with just 10 percent last year, while the good/excellent categories total 49 percent, down from 63 percent last year. Of course, grass is a very local concern, and the ratings are quite different in some of the states we serve.

Poor/very poor Good/excellent
Iowa

11

60

Kansas

29

29

Nebraska

11

55

South Dakota

10

51

Wyoming

8

65

18 States

17

49

 

Drought continues to be a concern in the Southern Plains and parts of the Dakotas.

“It may be time for some producers to cut cattle stocking rates by as much as 10 percent in parts of the Northern Plains,” according to Kevin Sedivec, North Dakota State University Extension range management specialist.

In some cases, water, rather than forage, is the issue. The market will continue to watch whether the drought spreads farther into the Corn Belt.

drought map 5-22-2018